Mercedes too strong for Verstappen and Red Bull in bizarrely fast long runs

Max Verstappen set the benchmark during the first test week in Bahrain, but it was shattered on day five by George Russell. On Thursday, Mercedes appeared to be a step ahead, while Ferrari also joined the party.

Although Red Bull Racing more or less entered the second test week as the favourite due to Verstappen’s impressive long runs, it became clear on Wednesday that the teams were pressing the accelerator further. As always with long-run analyses during test days, it’s a bit of guesswork, because we don’t know how much fuel the teams have on board or which engine modes they are running.

Still, the long runs can provide an indication of consistency and pace, especially when the drivers are on the same tires under the same conditions. During the morning session, Verstappen, Russell and Lando Norris all completed several long runs on the medium tire.

Does Wolff have nothing to fear anymore?

Photo: Red Bull Content Pool

Verstappen split his race simulations into three shorter stints. George Russell also chose three stints and ran slightly longer runs than Verstappen. Norris completed one longer long run on the medium tire. What immediately stands out is that Mercedes is significantly faster than Verstappen this time around.

Last week, the four-time world champion was over a second quicker than the German team, but now it’s the other way around. At the start of test week one, Toto Wolff still feared that Red Bull Racing would pull far ahead of Mercedes. For now, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Wolff sounded much more positive on Thursday in Bahrain.

The long runs of Verstappen, Russell and Norris on the C3 tire on Thursday morning of week 2 in Bahrain:

Verstappen’s second long run on the C3 tire (LR2 in the table), which is his fastest, still comes up nearly two seconds short of Russell’s first long run. Another striking point is that the gap between Verstappen’s first and second long runs is only three tenths, whereas Russell’s LR1 and LR2 differ by almost a second.

The four-time world champion is faster than Norris in both long runs. The McLaren driver admitted in the press conference that McLaren is slightly behind compared to last year. In the table below is a comparison of Norris on the C2 tire, while Russell was still on the C1 tire.

Verstappen compared to the competition

Verstappen did not run as much as McLaren and Mercedes in the morning, but he made sure to have a very productive afternoon. He completed long runs on the C2 compound and also did long runs on the C3. At the same time, Piastri, Antonelli, and Hamilton were also running that compound. The long runs below were therefore completed under very similar conditions.

Once again, Verstappen was faster than McLaren, but Antonelli shaved a full two seconds off Verstappen’s average. Hamilton is also quicker, but by only two tenths. Of the four drivers, Piastri comes out with the slowest average.

Verstappen and Piastri both completed long runs on the C2 compound. Antonelli did not, which means we can only compare Red Bull and McLaren on that compound. Verstappen’s second long run on the C2 compound is faster than his first, and is also the quickest of the two drivers. Piastri’s long run is two tenths faster than Verstappen’s LR1 and three tenths slower than Verstappen’s LR2.

Top teams challenge each other

In the afternoon session, Piastri and Hamilton also ran on the hard compound. This shows that McLaren and Ferrari are very evenly matched. Hamilton and Piastri are also challenging Russell’s long run on the C1 compound (1:37.868 on average). That’s not a fair comparison, however, as conditions in the later hours differ greatly from the mornings in Bahrain.

The gap between McLaren and Ferrari is only a few thousandths. On the C2 compound, Hamilton was again considerably slower than on the C1 compound, as shown in the table below.

Mercedes were also the best team in the long runs on Thursday. Last week, the German outfit was suspected of sandbagging by Verstappen. Wolff said in the press conference, however, that they had a much better start this week than last week, when they had many issues with the car.

There is still one test day to go, on which the teams are allowed to run with reduced electrical power. It will be interesting to see which teams choose to cooperate with this and what effect it will have on the long runs.

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