Tsunoda beats Verstappen: pressure mounts on Red Bull’s 2026 decision
Yuki Tsunoda is making life very difficult for the Red Bull leadership during the final phase of the F1 season. The Japanese driver seemed to be on his way out, but can a good result in the Sprint Qualifying in Qatar still save his carreer?
In recent months, it had become clear for some time that Yuki Tsunoda was on a dead-end track at Red Bull Racing. Isack Hadjar appears to be the new crown prince who will have the chance to take on Max Verstappen at Red Bull in brand-new cars in 2026.
That in itself is not a strange decision. Over an entire year, taking over after a short stint of Liam Lawson, Tsunoda didn't leave the strongest impression at Red Bull. The Japanese driver was often far off Verstappen's pace and barely managed to collect points, while his teammate is still in the fight for the world championship.
That Hadjar will drive for Red Bull Racing in ’26 seems a given, although the official confirmation from Red Bull Racing is yet to happen. The team will announce its driver choice for 2026 next week. Not only for Red Bull Racing, but also for Racing Bulls.
A chance for Tsunoda
And that’s where a chance still lies for Tsunoda. Because although Hadjar will logically be promoted after a stellar debut season with Racing Bulls, Tsunoda has indeed developed over 2025, with sprint qualifying in Qatar marking the first session where Tsunoda finished ahead of Verstappen. This is something Liam Lawson hasn’t managed at all and Sergio Perez has rarely achieved.
The Japanese driver was therefore happy after the sprint qualifying. "Yes, I mean so far it's been a clean race weekend. Pretty smooth, no issues in practice and this (sprint) qualifying so far. So, yeah, I felt more confident [going] into the qualifying. It's good that we had a clean race week so far.
"Just have to put it all together. There's three more sessions to go (in Qatar). But yes, I'm sure, especially with this now, it's very important for the team, especially for Max so, it’s good that both of sides of garage are very focused and you know we try to give ourself the maximum.
"Yeah also for me as well, happy with the car and with my confidence. Obviously, there are some bits to go for tomorrow to find the extra tenths, but I'm excited."
For 2026, Tsunoda is fighting for a seat at Racing Bulls. It would be a demotion, but also a temporary lifeline for his career. No seat at Racing Bulls would mean no Formula 1 in 2026. Tsunoda also hasn’t thought about a plan B yet, as became clear on Thursday during media day in Qatar.
Lawson or Tsunoda is the choice
And so Tsunoda must do everything he can to convince Red Bull that he is the right man to lead Racing Bulls into the new era. The team are likely to promote Arvid Lindblad, a big talent currently competing in Formula 2, to Racing Bulls in 2026. That leaves one seat for either Lawson or Tsunoda.
At Red Bull, Lawson has always had a slight edge, especially with Helmut Marko. Unlike Tsunoda, Lawson comes from Red Bull’s own junior program. The New Zealander is an aggressive driver with perhaps a bit more presence than his Japanese colleague on and off the track.
Lawson is also said to be better at communicating with his team. That was the reason that at the start of 2025 Lawson, and not Tsunoda, was promoted to Red Bull Racing. Red Bull thought Lawson had more potential, but as is well known, that choice backfired.
For 2026, Red Bull faces the same choice again, but now for Racing Bulls. One of the two must lead the team into a new era. An era in which the driver’s feedback on the new car, new engine, and new tires will be crucial. In that area, Tsunoda has never really made a dazzling impression.
The other side of the coin, however, is that Lawson has rarely shown he’s truly faster than Tsunoda. Lawson already came off second best in their head-to-head battle at Racing Bulls, after which he was completely outpaced by Verstappen and returned disillusioned to Racing Bulls. There, over the course of the season, he was also fairly easily beaten by Isack Hadjar. Aside from a few strong weekends from the New Zealander, the French driver had the upper hand over the entire season in his rookie year.
Marko sees Tsunoda improving
That was evident again in Qatar, where Lawson was knocked out in SQ1 and Hadjar narrowly missed out on SQ3. Meanwhile, Tsunoda showed enormous progress by beating Verstappen in a qualifying session. Even Marko, who often criticized the Japanese driver, spoke highly of Yuki’s performance and development to GPblog after the session.
He said: "If you look back to Las Vegas, Yuki was already very close to Max. And just when we put the wrong tyre pressure, that put him out in Q1, and that ruined his race weekend. But his speed was consistently improving."
According to the Austrian, that’s because Tsunoda feels increasingly at ease in the RB21. “Yes, and of course he's improving his performance and he's more involved, he's more interested in the technical side [of the team].”
Strangely enough, Red Bull thus finds itself for the second year in a row having to choose between Lawson and Tsunoda. If you go for pure speed, something Marko holds in high regard, the conclusion should be Tsunoda. If you want someone who’s better at communicating with the team, the pick is Lawson. Red Bull’s final decision, which will be announced after Qatar, will say a lot about how they view the duo.
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