Analysis | How Wolff could block Horner’s future in F1

When Christian Horner has completed his so-called gardening leave and is allowed to return to work after his dismissal from Red Bull Racing, there might come a time when the Brit considers a return to Formula 1. Alpine seems the most logical option at first glance, but it could turn out to be a nasty surprise for Horner.

As one of the first - even before Max Verstappen had done so - Flavio Briatore posted a message on Instagram after the Brit's dismissal, praising Horner for his twenty seasons with Red Bull. That the Italian did this is unsurprising. After all, Horner and the head of the Alpine F1 team have maintained a friendly relationship for years.

Alpine? Why it's not a foregone conclusion

Thus, a tenure at the French racing team for Horner is conceivable. However, there are also factors that make it far from obvious for Horner to end up at Alpine. For instance, it was the Brit who often harshly criticized the manufacturer for its lack of performance during the years Renault supplied engines to Red Bull. Time may heal wounds, but whether this is truly forgotten by the senior executives of Renault - which runs Alpine F1?

Moreover, Flavio Briatore is currently the boss, but he recently lost his support and confidant Luca de Meo at the Renault offices. Renault's CEO has stepped down, and it was he who had appointed Briatore. Especially if the results continue to disappoint, the Italian will no longer count on De Meo's backing.

Can Toto Wolff 'bully' Horner?

And then there's a final point, one that could just make Alpine not an option for Horner. Starting from 2026, Mercedes will supply engines to the French team. The Mercedes of, yes, Toto Wolff. It is well known that the Austrian and Horner do not get along, so perhaps Wolff will say: ‘With Horner involved, no engine deal’. Of course, this is speculation.

All in all, there are certainly quite a few reasons to believe that Horner could return to Formula 1 with Alpine. But just as significant could be the reasons why the French racing team should not take the risk.