Verstappen closes in: How the numbers could decide the F1 title race
Max Verstappen has been steadily narrowing the gap to Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris in the 2025 F1 drivers’ championship, raising questions about the Red Bull driver’s chances of a fifth consecutive crown.
The Dutchman’s recent winning streak has brought him to within 40 points of championship leader Piastri, while Norris remains just 14 points behind in second place.
After his latest victory in Austin, Verstappen acknowledged the opportunity is there for him but stressed the importance of consistency: the title is within reach if he can maintain strong performances across the remaining rounds.
In a recent deep dive by Formula1.com into the numbers that would see either driver crowned champion at the end of the season, the data revealed that looking purely at results, if Verstappen were to win every remaining Grand Prix and the two remaining Sprint races, while Piastri and Norris finished second and third respectively in each event, Piastri would still edge out the championship by the slimmest of margins, just three points, with Norris 31 behind.
Verstappen has proven himself at each of the upcoming tracks, boasting multiple victories in Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, which suggests the Dutchman could realistically continue his strong run. The current F1 champion has also won one of the two Las Vegas Grand Prix editions, in 2023.
In comparison, Piastri’s only Sprint wins came in Qatar, and his best Mexico finish is P8, while Norris has historically performed well in Abu Dhabi and Sao Paulo but has yet to secure victory at Mexico City, a feat he was very close to achieving last year.
Examining form since the summer break further highlights Verstappen’s momentum. Across the last five rounds, Zandvoort, Monza, Baku, Singapore, and Austin, Verstappen averaged a remarkable 23.8 points per weekend, compared with 12.4 for Piastri and 11.4 for Norris.
If this trend were maintained, Verstappen would finish the season with 426 points, comfortably claiming the championship by 20 points over Piastri, with Norris 39 points behind.
In terms of average finishing positions over the same stretch, Verstappen has consistently been on the podium with a 3.3 average, while Norris and Piastri sit at 5.9 and 7.6 respectively.
The data paints a clear picture: Verstappen’s form is surging, but the McLaren duo still hold enough in reserve to make the final rounds highly unpredictable.
The championship remains finely poised, with every weekend from Mexico to Abu Dhabi carrying the potential to reshape the title battle entirely.
Verstappen and Piastri struggle, as Norris flies in Mexico
Verstappen resented a lack of grip and bottoming during yesterday's qualifying session, with his best effort yielding only a P5-worthy time that was a long way away from Norris' pole position lap time.
Nevertheless Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko stated that the team had chosen to make a compromise in qualifying in order to increase their chances looking ahead to the race.
Championship leader Piastri did even worse, finishing the session in P7, stressing that whilst he and McLaren understand the issues he's facing, they can't seem to explain why they have risen, nor can they find the answer to solve them. McLaren team boss Andrea Stella dismissed any claims suggesting a technical issue with Piastri's car.
For his part Norris was able to tame his 'tricky to drive' McLaren to flie to pole position for today's race.
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