Did Mercedes fool everyone in Bahrain? Here’s what the numbers say

On Thursday evening, after the second day of testing in Bahrain, Max Verstappen suggested Mercedes may have been holding something back. A clear pattern can be seen in the long runs completed by both Mercedes drivers — but does that actually back up Verstappen’s theory? GPblog takes a closer look.

On Wednesday, Toto Wolff said the paddock had been impressed by Verstappen’s long-run pace with Red Bull Racing. GPblog’s own analysis confirmed that the four-time world champion has lost none of his metronomic consistency. Verstappen was roughly a second quicker than George Russell, although that comparison needs to be viewed in context given the issues Mercedes ran into earlier in the day.

By Friday, Verstappen was back behind the wheel, while Russell drove the W17 during the morning session on day three, giving us a chance to compare their long runs directly. As has been the case throughout the test, however, it’s important to remember that engine modes and fuel loads remain unknown, and both teams may well have been running very different programmes.

A natural pattern in Russell’s long runs or not?

The consistency within the runs can still provide an indication of race pace, although it remains difficult to draw conclusions during winter testing. Verstappen did his morning long runs on softs, while Russell ran on soft, medium, and hard.

Verstappen is once again considerably faster than Russell on the soft tire. In the Briton’s race simulations, however, it stands out that as he progresses in his long run, he seems to slow down. On the softest compound it’s logical that the tire degrades faster, but the same pattern is visible on other compounds.

After about three or four laps, Russell starts pushing, so the laps in the low 1:38s or low 1:39s fade. Verstappen does this in his third long run on softs as well, although his first and second long runs look a bit more consistent. It should of course be noted that Verstappen’s long runs were shorter than Russell’s.

Russell vs Verstappen on Wednesday

To see whether this also happened to Verstappen on Wednesday, we once again pull up the tables from that day, when Verstappen also ran the hard tire. Both did shorter long runs on Wednesday. Verstappen’s race simulation again looks more consistent than Russell’s. Naturally, the tire wears as the driver continues, but the car also gets lighter.

The same visible with Antonelli

In the afternoon, Kimi Antonelli took the wheel at Mercedes and Isack Hadjar got behind the wheel of the RB22. Once again, Mercedes focused on longer race simulations than Red Bull. Here, Hadjar’s laps marked with an ‘x’ indicate he encountered traffic, and those were therefore not included in the average calculation.

Antonelli, who drove in the afternoon—which means we have to account for post-sunset conditions—produced a stronger and more consistent long run on the hard tire, showing a more gradual drop-off than Russell, who fell from the high 1:38s to the low 1:40s. Whether it’s truly sandbagging is, of course, still hard to prove. The pattern could also point to tire wear.

Does Red Bull still have an advantage?

Verstappen’s long run on Wednesday on the hard tire, averaging 1:37.876, remains the benchmark for now. Antonelli and Russell both can’t match it. Verstappen also put Russell well behind on the medium tire.

Next week there will be another test in Bahrain, which will be the third showdown. As Verstappen already said, Melbourne will truly reveal who has been sandbagging.

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