Victories Verstappen and Hamilton in Mexico compared: Who is really the favourite?

22:07, 03 Nov 2021
27 Comments
They have split the past four editions of the Mexico Grand Prix between them and are fighting a neck-and-neck battle for the 2021 world title: Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton. Both drivers have an excellent track record at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, but who goes into the race weekend with the best credentials?
Formula 1 also calls them the 'Masters of Mexico'. Both Verstappen and Hamilton have won two races at the Mexico City circuit, which made a return to the calendar in 2015 after a year-long absence. So on paper the title rivals have an equal chance of winning the race, but who did it better? We put the victories side by side to find out.

2016 | Dominant weekend for Hamilton

In 2016, Hamilton took the win after an overall dominant weekend. The Briton was in the top three throughout the weekend and was also the fastest on Saturday. Verstappen qualified third, three tenths behind Hamilton.
Verstappen crossed the finish line in third place, sixteen seconds behind Nico Rosberg, but had to surrender his podium position after receiving a five-second time penalty for cutting a corner.

2017 | Weekend falls the way of Verstappen

Verstappen crossed the finish line as the winner in 2017, closing a twenty-second gap to Valtteri Bottas, who finished second to Kimi Raikkonen. Hamilton fell short of ninth place after making contact with Sebastian Vettel on the first lap and suffering a puncture as a result.
The weekend developed rather unpredictably. Both Mercedes and Red Bull Racing performed well in the free practice sessions, but on Saturday it was Sebastian Vettel who took pole position on behalf of Ferrari. Verstappen qualified next to the German on the front row of the grid and was four tenths of a second quicker than Hamilton, who was third fastest.
The Dutchman was able to overtake Vettel at the second corner, but the contact between Vettel and Hamilton prevented a direct duel. This allowed Verstappen to take the win relatively easily.

2018 | Red Bull develops into favorite in Mexico

Verstappen also won the race in 2018 and thus did so for the second time in a row. Vettel finished second with a gap of seventeen seconds to Verstappen, followed by Raikkonen in third. Hamilton finished the race fourth, which was enough to secure the world title.
In 2018, Red Bull developed into the big favourite for the Mexico Grand Prix. Verstappen topped all three free practice sessions, but had to leave teammate Daniel Ricciardo ahead in qualifying. Hamilton came a tenth short of Verstappen's time on Saturday. The Dutchman took the lead in the race and managed to build up a substantial gap.
Hamilton did not play a major role in the race on Sunday. Verstappen, on the other hand, pulled the race to himself right at the start and was able to turn his strong weekend into a convincing win.

2019 | Verstappen loses after eventful weekend

In 2019, it was Hamilton who crossed the finish line first. Verstappen had to make do with sixth place, after he collided with Bottas in the early stages of the race and suffered a puncture in the process. After this, the Dutchman had to come back from the back of the field.
Hamilton may have won the race, but Mercedes did not go into the weekend as the favourite. Verstappen underlined why this was the case in qualifying: his pole time was no less than half a second quicker than Hamilton's, who qualified fourth.
The joy was short lived though. Verstappen was given a three-place grid penalty for ignoring a yellow flag caused by a crash by Bottas. Because of this the Dutchman had to leave Hamilton behind him. Also this time a direct duel between the two remained out of reach: Verstappen lost a lot of time when he suffered a puncture when he touched Bottas, which was only diagnosed after he passed the pit lane.
The Red Bull driver then found himself at the back of the field and had to work his way to the front. Verstappen had an impressive race to catch up and moved up to sixth place. Hamilton was able to drive to victory relatively unthreatened.

Conclusion | Who has the best chances in Mexico?

Despite the fact that both drivers have two wins to their name in Mexico, Verstappen and Red Bull Racing are seen as the big favourites for the upcoming edition. After all, if Red Bull were able to win in the dominant Mercedes era, they certainly are now.
The cars are particularly well matched in 2021 and there is no reason to believe that the Red Bull car would not perform as well at the high altitude circuit this time around. Mercedes, on the other hand, struggles with reliability issues and usually suffers even more at high altitudes.
The way in which both drivers have achieved their on-track victories also plays a part in this. In his first season for Red Bull, Verstappen finished third, which was to be a sign of things to come.
All in all, it was Verstappen who left the biggest impression on the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. The fact that he won two races there with a lead of around twenty seconds in a car that Mercedes generally couldn't challenge is a major factor in the role of favourite attributed to him. Hamilton has done what he had to do in previous editions of the Grand Prix, but will have an even bigger job to do with Verstappen and Red Bull this time around than he is used to.

27 Comments
Ventus2cx 04 November 2021 at 06:19+ 781

So many articles about who has the better cards, what is going to happen etc. Its just bla bla. Lets see on the track on sunday. Nobody csn predict a race as there are too many unknown parameters and so many things can happen.

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Bret 04 November 2021 at 05:58+ 43891

Max is a better driver than hamilton and is stronger on this track..the only way hamilton can beat max is by touching wheels which he will try at lap 1...hopefully hamilton wont be close enough to touch the legend

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Tarun.12 04 November 2021 at 05:50+ 4112

Max is mighty strong driver at this track ; by the way not just this track but many more too but yeah I think he's gonna gap to Mercedes ?

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Stevesyd 04 November 2021 at 24:33+ 36119

Wolff has already stated Mercedes is the dominant car but not by much and given his acknowledgement of Max being a "phenomenon" it follows the majority consensus that Max's superior driving skills will be the difference as we all witnessed in Austin.
Only bad luck and foul play will stop Max.
Once again it is hamiltons to lose.

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VeganWarrior 04 November 2021 at 03:04+ 53216

Didn't you say Toto is a snake and nothing he says can be trusted. Cause if Toto is your truth sayer now, then I have a long list of quotes Toto made that you will agree would now right?

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Game on-x4 04 November 2021 at 06:07+ 46571

You wrote that Mercedes' straight line speed is higher in one of your stupid posts!!!.....So what sh*t are you talking???

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VeganWarrior 04 November 2021 at 10:58+ 53216

Really I did that, prove it mate ?

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Stevesyd 04 November 2021 at 06:57+ 36119

Thats because he has finally realised he cant keep denying the obvious.
His conscience must have gotten to him.

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Bret 04 November 2021 at 05:57+ 43891

More evidence that Mercedes is the dominant car is Sky F1 data which showed mercedes were fastest on all circuits except Monaco & Azerbaijan......no one can refute F1 data as it goes beyond words.

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VeganWarrior 04 November 2021 at 24:09+ 53216

Max is strong at this track, now he has a dominant car . Mercedes have no chance.

Verstappen_is_king 04 November 2021 at 05:12+ 9233

What data do you have to prove this, please share it with us,

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VeganWarrior 04 November 2021 at 05:57+ 53216

What data do you have to prove other wise mate?

Red Bull, the technicians led by Adrian Newey have definitely invested in the philosophy that provides that the angle that the diffuser creates with the asphalt is more pronounced. This peculiarity adds up to a much shorter wheelbase than the Anglo-German rival. Factors that enhance some specific characteristics: handling and mechanical traction. Elements that have made the car easier to adapt to the various types of track encountered so far.

The most tangible advantage that the Red Bull has over the Mercedes lies in the ability of the former to generate a large vertical thrust with the bottom of the car. The downforce produced with the wings naturally plays a role in the overall economy of the car, but it is by no means efficient. The one generated with the bottom and with the diffuser “costs” less in points of resistance to advancement. This explains why Milton Keynes’s car, with the same generated load, can adopt a decidedly more discharged rear configuration than the W12.
Factor, of course, that helps not a little to raise top speeds in straight sections. A difference, even strictly visual, which was very evident at Spa Francorchamps, when the RB16B seemed to have a wing almost parallel to the ground.

Red Bull did not remain at the version seen during the pre-season tests. Adrian Newey is a technician who has made reading skills during construction one of the main professional virtues. Here the RB16B has been updated with various micro-aerodynamic innovations that have made it possible to adapt it to the different layouts of the tracks and to maintain a small, but constant, technical advantage over theMercedes. A non-stop work that has invested the flow deflectors and the stepped bottomand the diffuser which has been entrusted with the task of increasingly energizing the outgoing flow.

The majority of Red Bull's performance advantage came in high-speed corners, although the RB16B held an advantage over the Mercedes in pretty much every corner type.

Verstappen is also helped by his Honda power unit's ability to deploy more electrical energy at a couple of key points around the lap where the Mercedes hybrid system momentarily ran out of juice.

"We don't really have any strengths relative to them, is what I would say," Mercedes chief trackside engineer Andrew Shovlin said

"There have been a lot of years where we have been able to rely on straight-line speed or high-speed cornering or interconnected corners, but you look at it and we are taking any time out of them anywhere.

"That's really the main thing. In qualifying they were just bang on the pace and in their best form they are just quicker than the others, so we need a faster car, simple as that."

A car that is 0.4s per lap faster over a single lap will quickly become a blunt instrument if it is losing 0.1s of performance per lap compared to its rivals through tyre degradation.

However, changes to the aerodynamic regulations over the winter appear to have impacted Mercedes' performance more than Red Bull's, resulting in the thrilling prospect of a two-team battle for the championship.
While that is desirable outcome for Formula One, it wasn't the reason why the rules were tweaked.
The changes, which include a triangular section of the floor being cut out before the rear tyres, a reduction in the length of certain diffuser strakes and a limitation on the size or aerodynamic appendages on the rear brake ducts, were introduced to give Pirelli's tyres an easier time

The decision came after three tyre failures at the British Grand Prix that were traced back to the sheer force being exerted on the construction of the tyre through high-speed corners.
The FIA became concerned that the continuous push for more downforce over the winter would result in more tyre failures in 2021 and a potential safety issue.
The governing body can make unilateral changes to the regulations from year to year for safety reasons, and it took swift action to introduce the downforce cuts for 2021.
But making changes to such a sensitive area of the car always had the potential to impact some teams more than others.

Mercedes and Aston Martin have been hit hardest as both teams were two seconds off the pace of their qualifying times at last year's Bahrain Grand Prix compared to the 1.4s average across the other eight teams.
It could be the case that Mercedes and Aston Martin simply failed to adapt to the new rules as effectively as their rivals, but there is a connection in their car design that hints that Mercedes was always going to be harder than Red Bull.
Both Mercedes and Aston Martin (which essentially copied Mercedes' design last year) run a relatively low rear ride height compared to the rest of the grid.

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Dynamiq 04 November 2021 at 06:14+ 24353

How many times are you gonna copy and paste this? Mercedes has been hit harder than Red Bull, which means RB also has been hit. This analisys proves nothing. This is pure theory. The better car can be seen in data and statistics, and that's where Mercedes proves they still have the better car. Of course, it's not the same as in previous years, it's around 0.16s overall so far, but that's good enough for Max

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Dynamiq 04 November 2021 at 06:36+ 24353

She thinks bookies make their books after analysing who has the faster car. They don't. They make their cards in a way that no matter what, the house doesn't lose. More people are betting on Max to win, that's why the bookies place him as favorite. It's simple math and statistics. Bookies don't give a **** about who is the better driver or who has the better car

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Bret 04 November 2021 at 06:31+ 43891

Spot on...we dont need to believe what bookies say...data doesnt lie and its open in SKY F1....0.16s was advantage Merc over red bull in Austin....in Turkey it was 0.6 of a second over red bull........

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Stevesyd 04 November 2021 at 06:54+ 36119

Exactly. Copy and pasted.
Source :https://www.funoanalisitecnica.com/2021/09/f1-honda-mercedes-red-bulll.html

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Stevesyd 04 November 2021 at 06:48+ 36119

Copy and pasting articles as usual.
As I keep saying, at least have the decency to state the source instead of wanting all to assume its your contribution.

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Stevesyd 04 November 2021 at 06:53+ 36119

Copy and pasted. Plagiarism.
Source : https://www.funoanalisitecnica.com/2021/09/f1-honda-mercedes-red-bulll.html

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VeganWarrior 04 November 2021 at 13:36+ 53216

Yip you're right, so now that you have the article ,and not my word for it, what are your thoughts ?

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Dynamiq 04 November 2021 at 12:42+ 24353

The changes hurt all the teams genius. It hurt the low rake teams more than the high rake teams, that's true, but if the changes are so drastic and made that big of an impact, why is Ferrari not the fastest car? They're high rake aswell.

Data and statistics confirm that Mercedes is the faster car overall this season, by an average of 0.16s. I know it's hard for you to accept the fact that Max is simply the best driver on the grid right now.

It's ok to cry, but it's not ok to copy paste the same article on every post here, and on top of that to try to make people assume it was you who wrote all that.

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VeganWarrior 04 November 2021 at 12:26+ 53216

Did you read the article? I have been saying that the Redbull car is dominant and been going on about the mechanical grip. And the reg
changes that benefited Redbull. Mate you've been commenting on those posts.

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Dynamiq 04 November 2021 at 11:23+ 24353

Why do you talk like you're the one who came up with it and the article confirmed it? You just copy-paste. Nothing you said is confirmed, because it was not you that said it

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Stevesyd 04 November 2021 at 13:34+ 36119

Confirmed in an article you copied and pasted.
Nothing said by you.
You're a joke.

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VeganWarrior 04 November 2021 at 10:59+ 53216

Did you even read the article mate ? Cause everything I say is confirmed ?

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Stevesyd 04 November 2021 at 06:46+ 36119

On an even playing you don't have to be a genius to work that out as this season has proven.

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Lewishamilton 04 November 2021 at 08:14+ 434

Well that makes a change, seeing as paper boy was in the fastest car for the last 4 titles