After taking third place in Brazil, Max Verstappen still retains a faint mathematical hope of defending his world title, though Lando Norris’s victory at Interlagos has left that prospect hanging by a thread.
The Dutchman’s fate could be sealed at the upcoming Las Vegas Grand Prix, where another strong performance from Norris might formally end Verstappen’s challenge for the 2025 crown.
Heading into Las Vegas, Norris leads the standings with 390 points to Verstappen’s 341, a 49-point difference that leaves little room for error for the Red Bull driver.
With only two rounds to follow, in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, there are 58 points left to claim in total: 50 across the two remaining Grands Prix and a further eight available from the sprint in Qatar.
After the Las Vegas GP, two more F1 weekends remain: Qatar, which also features a sprint race, and Abu Dhabi. That amounts to a maximum of 58 points still available: 50 in the two main races and 8 in the sprint.
Verstappen could be eliminated in Las Vegas
If Norris out-scores Verstappen by ten points or more in Las Vegas, the gap would stretch to at least 59, a margin Verstappen could no longer overturn. Even with back-to-back wins and a sprint victory in the final two rounds, he would fall short.
Several finishing scenarios could mathematically eliminate him from the championship by the end of the weekend in Nevada.
In these scenarios, Verstappen would be definitively eliminated from the title fight after the Las Vegas GP:
- Norris finishes P1, Verstappen P3 or lower
- Norris finishes P2, Verstappen P6 or lower
- Norris finishes P3, Verstappen P8 or lower
- Norris finishes P4, Verstappen P9 or lower
- Norris finishes P5, Verstappen finishes outside the points or DNF
If Norris finishes sixth or lower, he scores a maximum of eight points and the McLaren driver cannot extend the gap to 59 points. In that case, Verstappen’s title chances remain mathematically alive.
However, Norris doesn’t actually need to outscore Verstappen by ten points, nine would suffice. If another driver were to win the Las Vegas Grand Prix and Norris extended his lead over the Dutchman by nine points, Verstappen could, at best, only draw level in the standings, and only if he were to win the sprint in Qatar as well as both remaining Grands Prix.
Should the season conclude in Abu Dhabi with Verstappen and Norris tied on points, they would also share the same number of victories. In that scenario, the title would be decided by the number of podium finishes, a tiebreaker that would still see the McLaren driver crowned as the 2025 World Champion.
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