After the incident with George Russell in Barcelona, Verstappen was awarded three penalty points. This brings him to eleven out of the twelve maximum points over a twelve-month period. If he commits another infraction before June 30, he will have to skip a Grand Prix. Even after that, he remains in the danger zone until the end of October, when further points will come of.

At Red Bull, they are hoping it doesn't come to that, but behind the scenes, there's undoubtedly already consideration over the question: who would replace Verstappen if it does happen?

The name most frequently mentioned is that of Isack Hadjar. The young Frenchman, currently competing for Racing Bulls, has impressed with his speed and resilience. After a painful crash during the formation lap in Australia, he quickly recovered and consistently scored points. Hadjar is viewed as the talent within the Red Bull program, as top advisor Helmut Marko emphasized multiple times.

His performances this season make him a logical candidate on paper in this scenario, where the Austrian racing team can immediately evaluate if he can handle the challenging RB21. Hadjar races under the Red Bull banner with Racing Bulls and has impressed several times this year, notably with a fifth starting position in Monaco.

Liam Lawson drove two races for Red Bull earlier this season but was demoted back to Racing Bulls after the Chinese GP. Since then, he has been trying to reinforce his position within the Red Bull family. In Monaco, he proved to be a good team player by deliberately slowing the pace at the back, allowing Hadjar to make a pit stop without losing position.

Lawson knows the team and has gained experience within the Red Bull structure, but his previous performance did not earn him a permanent spot. Whether he will be preferred again in Verstappen's potential absence is therefore uncertain.

Ayumu Iwasa has been part of the Red Bull program for years. The Super Formula driver has already tested for both Racing Bulls and Red Bull and could, should Hadjar or Lawson temporarily move up to Red Bull, be considered to drive for Racing Bulls if one of their two drivers gets promoted for a single event.

The same applies to Arvid Lindblad, who made his debut in Formula 2 this year and recently won a feature race for the first time in Spain. However, the British driver is only 17 years old, presenting an extra challenge: he is officially only allowed to race in F1 after his eighteenth birthday (early August), unless he receives a dispensation from the FIA.

Then there are the veterans. Daniel Ricciardo returned to the Red Bull family in 2023 but lost his Racing Bulls seat to Liam Lawson in 2024. Since then, he has left the sport completely. A one-time comeback for Ricciardo would undoubtedly attract a lot of attention, but it's questionable whether he himself is still open to it.

The likelihood of Sergio Perez making a one-off return to his old team may even be more unlikely. He knows the team better than anyone, but his performances in 2024 were deemed insufficient to keep his spot. Moreover, he is still seen as a candidate for a seat at Cadillac, which will join the F1 grid in 2026.